SPX Monitoring Purposes: Sold 11/29/23 at 4550.58 = gain 10.52%; Long SPX 10/27/23 at 4117.37.
Gain Since 12/20/22: 26.8%.
Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
The bottom window above is the VIX; readings below 17 lean bullish, as most tops in the market start to form when the VIX is above 17 (current VIX reading is 13.08). However, a rising VIX, along with a rising SPY is a bearish sign, and both the VIX and SPY have been rising over the last several days. Last Friday, the SPY closed at a new short-term high and volume expanded to the highest levels going back over a week. Most high volume highs are tested, and, if tested on lighter volume, would add to the short-term bearish picture. A gap formed near the 440 range and would be a possible downside target. We sold our long SPX on the close of 11/29/23 at 4550.58, a gain of 10.52%. Long from SPX 10/27/23 at 4117.37.
The bottom window is the SPY, and the next higher window is the TLT/VVIX ratio. In mid-October, the SPY was making lower lows and the TLT/VVIX ratio was making higher lows and a bullish divergence (noted in light blue): October 27 marked the low. Currently, we have the SPY hitting a higher highs and the TLT/VVIX ratio making lower highs and a bearish divergence. This negative divergence can last several days, if not a week or two. There is evidence that, over the next couple of weeks, a pullback in the SPX (SPY) may materialize. We pointed out that Friday’s volume on the SPY was relatively high, and most high volume highs are tested, which could be a short-term target for the next high. A large gap formed on the SPY near the 440 range, and most large gaps get filled at some point. The 440 on the SPY represent a 38.2% retracement and a possible downside target. The bigger trend is up and the shorter term trend is sideways to down. Staying neutral for now.
Signals are provided as general information only and are not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable; there is no guarantee results will be profitable. Not responsible for errors or omissions. I may invest in the vehicles mentioned above.